| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25110 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25110 |
| Unbundling Polarization | |
| Nathan Canen; Chad Kendall; Francesco Trebbi | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-10-01 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper investigates the determinants of political polarization, a phenomenon of increasing relevance in Western democracies. How much of polarization is driven by divergence in the ideologies of politicians? How much is instead the result of changes in the capacity of parties to control their members? We use detailed internal information on party discipline in the context of the U.S. Congress – whip count data for 1977-1986 – to identify and structurally estimate an economic model of legislative activity where agenda selection, party discipline, and member votes are endogenous. The model delivers estimates of the ideological preferences of politicians, the extent of party control, and allows us to assess the effects of polarization through agenda setting (i.e. which alternatives to a status quo are strategically pursued). We find that parties account for approximately 40 percent of the political polarization in legislative voting over this time period, a critical inflection point in U.S. polarization. We also show that, absent party control, historically significant economic policies, including Debt Limit bills, the Social Security Amendments of 1983, and the two Reagan Tax Cuts of 1981 and 1984 would have not passed or lost substantial support. Counterfactual exercises establish that party control is highly relevant for the probability of success of a given bill and that polarization in ideological preferences is instead more consequential for policy selection, resulting in different bills being pursued. |
| 主题 | Other ; Economic Systems |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25110 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582783 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nathan Canen,Chad Kendall,Francesco Trebbi. Unbundling Polarization. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25110.pdf（1216KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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