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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w25148
来源IDWorking Paper 25148
The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies
Erik Brynjolfsson; Daniel Rock; Chad Syverson
发表日期2018-10-15
出版年2018
语种英语
摘要General purpose technologies (GPTs) such as AI enable and require significant complementary investments, including co-invention of new processes, products, business models and human capital. These complementary investments are often intangible and poorly measured in the national accounts, even when they create valuable assets for the firm. We develop a model that shows how this leads to an underestimation of productivity growth in the early years of a new GPT, and how later, when the benefits of intangible investments are harvested, productivity growth will be overestimated. Our model generates a Productivity J-Curve that can explain the productivity slowdowns often accompanying the advent of GPTs, as well as the increase in productivity later. We use our model to analyze empirically the historical roles of intangibles tied to R&D, software, and computer hardware. We find substantial and ongoing Productivity J-Curve effects for software in particular and computer hardware to a lesser extent. Our adjusted measure TFP is 11.3% higher than official measures at the end of 2004, and 15.9% higher than official measures at the end of 2017. We then assess how AI-related intangible capital may be currently affecting measured productivity and find the effects are small but growing.
主题Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Development and Growth ; Innovation and R& ; D
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w25148
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582821
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Erik Brynjolfsson,Daniel Rock,Chad Syverson. The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies. 2018.
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