| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w25200
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 25200
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| Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases |
| Daniel J. Benjamin
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| 发表日期 | 2018-10-29
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| 出版年 | 2018
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Errors in probabilistic reasoning have been the focus of much psychology research and are among the original topics of modern behavioral economics. This chapter reviews theory and evidence on this topic, with the goal of facilitating more systematic study of belief biases and their integration into economics. The chapter discusses biases in beliefs about random processes, biases in belief updating, the representativeness heuristic as a possible unifying theory, and interactions between biased belief updating and other features of the updating situation. Throughout, I aim to convey how much evidence there is for (and against) each putative bias, and I highlight when and how different biases may be related to each other. The chapter ends by drawing general lessons for when people update too much or too little, reflecting on modeling challenges, pointing to areas of economics to which the biases are relevant, and highlighting some possible directions for future work. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics
; Behavioral Economics
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25200
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582874
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Daniel J. Benjamin. Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases. 2018.
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文件名：
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w25200.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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