| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25212 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25212 |
| Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy? | |
| Scott R. Baker; Lorenz Kueng; Leslie McGranahan; Brian T. Melzer | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-11-05 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | When the zero lower bound on nominal interest rate binds, monetary policy makers may lack traditional tools to stimulate aggregate demand. We investigate whether "unconventional" fiscal policy, in the form of pre-announced consumption tax changes, has the potential to meaningfully shift durables purchases intertemporally and how it is affected by consumer credit. In particular, we test whether car sales react in anticipation of future sales tax changes, leveraging 57 pre-announced changes in state sales tax rates from 1999-2017. We find evidence for substantial tax elasticities, with car sales rising by over 8% in the month before a 1% increase in the sales tax rate. Responses are heterogeneous across households and sensitive to supply of credit. Consumers with high credit risk scores are most able to pull purchases forward. At the same time, other effects such as customer composition and attention lead to an even larger tax elasticity during recessions, despite these credit frictions. We discuss policy implications and the likely magnitudes of tax changes necessary for any substantive long-term responses. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Public Economics ; Taxation |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25212 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582886 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Scott R. Baker,Lorenz Kueng,Leslie McGranahan,et al. Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy?. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25212.pdf（489KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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