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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w25219
来源IDWorking Paper 25219
Will Brexit Age Well? Cohorts, Seasoning and the Age-Leave Gradient, Past, Present and Future
Barry Eichengreen; Rebecca Mari; Gregory Thwaites
发表日期2018-11-05
出版年2018
语种英语
摘要In the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership, young voters were more likely than their elders to vote Remain. Applying new methods to a half century of data, we show that this pattern reflects both ageing and cohort effects. Although voters become more Eurosceptical as they age, recent cohorts are also more pro-European than their predecessors. Much of the pro-Europeanism of these recent cohorts is accounted for by their greater years of education. Going forward, the ageing of the electorate will thus be offset at least in part by the replacement of older cohorts with younger, better-educated and more pro-European ones. But we also document large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with either seasoning or cohort effects. Hence these demographic trends are unlikely to be the decisive determinants of future changes in European sentiment. Rather, nationwide changes in sentiment, reflecting macroeconomic or other conditions, and the age-turnout gradient will be key.
主题Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Poverty and Wellbeing ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w25219
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582893
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Barry Eichengreen,Rebecca Mari,Gregory Thwaites. Will Brexit Age Well? Cohorts, Seasoning and the Age-Leave Gradient, Past, Present and Future. 2018.
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