| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25256 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25256 |
| An Analysis of Puerto Rico's Debt Relief Needs to Restore Debt Sustainability | |
| Pablo A. Gluzmann; Martin M. Guzman; Joseph E. Stiglitz | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-11-19 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper makes two contributions. First, we examine the macroeconomic implications of Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Plan that was certified in March 2017 for fiscal years 2017-18 to 2026-27. Second, we perform a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) that incorporates the expected macroeconomic dynamics implied by the Fiscal Plan in order to compute Puerto Rico’s debt restructuring needs. We detect a number of flawed assumptions in the Fiscal Plan that lead to an underestimation of its contractionary effects on the island’s economic activity. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the expected macroeconomic dynamics implied by the plan that allows us to construct more realistic scenarios of Puerto Rico’s debt restructuring needs. We show that the island’s current debt position is unsustainable, and compute the necessary debt relief to restore sustainability under different sets of assumptions. The paper offers general insights for performing a macro-consistent DSA. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; International Finance ; Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25256 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582930 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pablo A. Gluzmann,Martin M. Guzman,Joseph E. Stiglitz. An Analysis of Puerto Rico's Debt Relief Needs to Restore Debt Sustainability. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25256.pdf（693KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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