全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Drivers of the Great Housing Boom-Bust: Credit Conditions, Beliefs, or Both?

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w25285
来源ID	Working Paper 25285
	Drivers of the Great Housing Boom-Bust: Credit Conditions, Beliefs, or Both?
	Josue Cox; Sydney C. Ludvigson
发表日期	2018-11-26
出版年	2018
语种	英语
摘要	Two potential driving forces of house price fluctuations are commonly cited: credit conditions and beliefs. We posit some simple empirical calculations using direct measures of credit conditions and beliefs to consider their potentially distinct roles in house price fluctuations at the aggregate level. Changes in credit conditions are positively related to the fraction of riskier non-conforming debt in total mortgage lending, while measures of beliefs are unrelated to this ratio. Credit conditions explain quantitatively large magnitudes of the variation in quarterly house price growth and also predict future house price growth. Beliefs bear some relation to contemporaneous house price growth but have little predictive power. A structural VAR analysis implies that shocks to credit conditions have quantitatively important dynamic causal effects on house price changes.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Real Estate
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w25285
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582959
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Josue Cox,Sydney C. Ludvigson. Drivers of the Great Housing Boom-Bust: Credit Conditions, Beliefs, or Both?. 2018.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w25285.pdf（637KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览