| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25288 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25288 |
| Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of U.S. Safe Real Rates | |
| Kurt G. Lunsford; Kenneth D. West | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-11-26 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study long run correlations between safe real interest rates in the U.S. and over 30 variables that have been hypothesized to influence real rates. The list of variables is motivated by an intertermporal IS equation, by models of aggregate savings and investment, and by reduced form studies. We use annual data, mostly from 1890 to 2016. We find that safe real interest rates are correlated as expected with demographic measures. For example, the long run correlation with labor force hours growth is positive, which is consistent with overlapping generations models. For another example, the long run correlation with the proportion of 40 to 64 year-olds in the population is negative. This is consistent with standard theory where middle-aged workers are high-savers who drive down real interest rates. In contrast to standard theory, we do not find productivity to be positively correlated with real rates. Most other variables have a mixed relationship with the real rate, with long run correlations that are statistically or economically large in some samples and by some measures but not in others. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25288 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582962 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kurt G. Lunsford,Kenneth D. West. Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of U.S. Safe Real Rates. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25288.pdf（373KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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