| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25334 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25334 |
| Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration | |
| Alejandro Graziano; Kyle Handley; Nuno Limão | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-12-10 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products and asymmetric for UK and EU exporters. We estimate that a persistent doubling of the probability of Brexit at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% lowers EU-UK bilateral export values by 15 log points on average, and more so for EU than UK exporters. Neither believed a trade war was likely. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; International Economics ; Trade ; Globalization and International Relations |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25334 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583007 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alejandro Graziano,Kyle Handley,Nuno Limão. Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25334.pdf（1039KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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