| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25379 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25379 |
| The Economics and Politics of Revoking NAFTA | |
| Raphael Auer; Barthélémy Bonadio; Andrei A. Levchenko | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-12-24 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We provide a quantitative assessment of both the aggregate and the distributional effects of revoking NAFTA using a multi-country, multi-sector, multi-factor model of world production and trade with global input-output linkages. Revoking NAFTA would reduce US welfare by about 0.2%, and Canadian and Mexican welfare by about 2%. The distributional impacts of revoking NAFTA across workers in different sectors are an order of magnitude larger in all three countries, ranging from -2.7 to 2.26% in the United States. We combine the quantitative results with information on the geographic distribution of sectoral employment, and compute average real wage changes in each US congressional district, Mexican state, and Canadian province. We then examine the political correlates of the economic effects. Congressional district-level real wage changes are negatively correlated with the Trump vote share in 2016: districts that voted more for Trump would on average experience greater real wage reductions if NAFTA is revoked. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Trade ; Globalization and International Relations ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Regional Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25379 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583053 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Raphael Auer,Barthélémy Bonadio,Andrei A. Levchenko. The Economics and Politics of Revoking NAFTA. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25379.pdf（2924KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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