| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25478 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25478 |
| Noisy Memory and Over-Reaction to News | |
| Rava Azeredo da Silveira; Michael Woodford | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-01-21 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose a model of optimal decision making subject to a memory constraint. The constraint is a limit on the complexity of memory measured using Shannon’s mutual information, as in models of rational inattention; but our theory differs from that of Sims (2003) in not assuming costless memory of past cognitive states. We show that the model implies that both forecasts and actions will exhibit idiosyncratic random variation; that beliefs will fluctuate forever around the rational-expectations (perfect-memory) beliefs with a variance that does not fall to zero; and that more recent news will be given disproportionate weight. The model provides a simple explanation for a number of features of expectations in laboratory and field settings, most notably apparent over-reaction of both elicited forecasts and spending decisions to transitory fluctuations in economic time series. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Macroeconomics ; Financial Economics ; Behavioral Finance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25478 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583152 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rava Azeredo da Silveira,Michael Woodford. Noisy Memory and Over-Reaction to News. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25478.pdf（250KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
