| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w25504
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 25504
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| Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions |
| Charles F. Manski
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| 发表日期 | 2019-02-04
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| 出版年 | 2019
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Statisticians have proposed meta-analysis to combine the findings of multiple studies of health risks or treatment response. The standard practice is to compute a weighted-average of the estimates. Yet it is not clear how to interpret a weighted average of estimates reported in disparate studies. Meta-analyses often answer this question through the lens of a random-effects model, which interprets a weighted average of estimates as an estimate of a mean parameter across a hypothetical population of studies. The relevance to medical decision making is obscure. Decision-centered research should aim to inform risk assessment and treatment for populations of patients, not populations of studies. This paper lays out principles for decision-centered meta-analysis. One first specifies a prediction of interest and next examines what each available study credibly reveals. Such analysis typically yields a set-valued prediction rather than a point prediction. Thus, one uses each study to conclude that a probability of disease, or mean treatment response, lies within a range of possibilities. Finally, one combines the available studies by computing the intersection of the set-valued predictions that they yield. To demonstrate decision-centered meta-analysis, the paper considers assessment of the effect of anti-hypertensive drugs on blood pressure. |
| 主题 | Econometrics
; Estimation Methods
; Health, Education, and Welfare
; Health
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25504
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583178
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Charles F. Manski. Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions. 2019.
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文件名：
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w25504.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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