| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25511 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25511 |
| Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures | |
| Olivier Coibion; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Mauricio Ulate | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-02-04 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The length of the recovery since the Great Recession and the low reported levels of the unemployment rate in the U.S. are increasingly generating concerns about inflationary pressures. We document that an expectations-augmented Phillips curve can account for inflation not just in the U.S. but across a range of countries, once household or firm-level inflation expectations are used. Given this relationship, we can infer the dynamics of slack from the dynamics of inflation gaps and vice versa. We find that the implied slack was pushing inflation below expectations in the years after the Great Recession but the global and U.S. inflation gaps have shrunk in recent years thus suggesting tighter economic conditions. While we find no evidence that inflation is on the brink of rising, the sustained deflationary pressures following the Great Recession have abated. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25511 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583185 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Olivier Coibion,Yuriy Gorodnichenko,Mauricio Ulate. Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25511.pdf（1235KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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