| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25521 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25521 |
| Fertility Trends in the United States, 1980-2017: The Role of Unintended Births | |
| Kasey Buckles; Melanie E. Guldi; Lucie Schmidt | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-02-04 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | After roughly 10 years of decline, the U.S. fertility rate reached a historic low in 2017. However, aggregate trends in fertility mask substantial heterogeneity across different demographic groups. Young women and unmarried women have seen the largest declines in fertility in recent years while women older than 30 and married women have actually experienced increases. In this paper, we explore the role of changes in unintended births in explaining fertility patterns in the U.S. from 1980 to 2017, with an emphasis on the fertility decline of the last decade. We begin by documenting heterogeneity in fertility trends across demographic groups, using data from the National Center for Health Statistics’ Natality Detail Files. We then use data from the National Survey of Family Growth to describe trends in unintended births and to estimate a model that will identify the maternal characteristics that most strongly predict them. Finally, we use this model to predict the proportion of births in the Natality Detail Files that are unintended. We find that 35% of the decline in fertility between 2007 and 2016 can be explained by declines in births that were likely unintended, and that this is driven by drops in births to young women. |
| 主题 | Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25521 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583195 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kasey Buckles,Melanie E. Guldi,Lucie Schmidt. Fertility Trends in the United States, 1980-2017: The Role of Unintended Births. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25521.pdf（474KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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