| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25554 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25554 |
| Market Expectations About Climate Change | |
| Wolfram Schlenker; Charles A Taylor | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-02-18 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | An emerging literature examines how agents update their beliefs about climate change. Most studies have relied on indirect belief measures or opinion polls. We analyze a direct measure: prices of financial products whose payouts are tied to future weather outcomes. We compare these market expectations to climate model output for the years 2002 to 2018 as well as observed weather station data across eight cities in the US. All datasets show statistically significant and comparable warming trends. Nonparametric estimates suggest that trends in weather markets follow climate model predictions and are not based on shorter-term variation in observed weather station data. When money is at stake, agents are accurately anticipating warming trends in line with the scientific consensus of climate models. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Financial Markets ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25554 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583228 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wolfram Schlenker,Charles A Taylor. Market Expectations About Climate Change. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25554.pdf（487KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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