| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25556 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25556 |
| Retirement Implications of a Low Wage Growth, Low Real Interest Rate Economy | |
| Jason Scott; John B. Shoven; Sita Slavov; John G. Watson | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-02-18 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We examine the implications of persistent low real interest rates and wage growth rates on individuals nearing retirement. We begin by reviewing the concept of r star – the long-term real, safe interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary – and presenting recent estimates suggesting that this value has declined. We then examine the implications of low returns and low wage growth for individuals currently aged 45 and 55. We find that low returns and low wage growth have substantial welfare effects, with compensating variations that are often in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Low returns increase optimal Social Security claiming ages and the marginal benefit of working longer, while low wage growth decreases the marginal benefit of working longer. Low economy-wide wage growth has a much larger welfare effect than low individual wage growth due to wage indexation of the initial benefit and the progressivity of the Social Security benefit formula. When individual wage growth alone is low, wage indexation is unchanged, and the progressivity of the benefit formula provides insurance. When economy-wide wage growth is low, wage indexation is less generous and there is no insurance benefit from progressivity as average wages fall along with individual wages. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues ; Labor Economics ; Labor Supply and Demand |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25556 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583230 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jason Scott,John B. Shoven,Sita Slavov,et al. Retirement Implications of a Low Wage Growth, Low Real Interest Rate Economy. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25556.pdf（801KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
