| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25563 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25563 |
| The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate: The J Curve and Trade Costs? | |
| George A. Alessandria; Horag Choi | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-02-18 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study how changes in trade barriers contributed to the dynamics of the US trade balance and real exchange rate since 1980 - a period when trade tripled. Using two dynamic trade models, we decompose fluctuations in the trade balance into terms related to trade integration (global and unilateral) and business cycle asymmetries. We find three main results. First, the relatively large US trade deficits as a share of GDP in the 2000s compared to the 1980s mostly reflect a rise in the trade share of GDP. Second, controlling for trade, only about 60 percent of net trade flows are due to business cycle asymmetries. And third, about two-thirds of the contribution of business-cycle asymmetries are a lagged response. For instance, the short-run Armington elasticity is about 0.2 while the long-run is closer to 1.12 with only 6.9 percent of the gap closed per quarter. We show that a two-country IRBC model with a dynamic exporting decision, pricing-to-market, and trade cost shocks can account for the dynamics of the US trade balance, real exchange rate, and trade integration. The model clarifies how permanent and transitory changes in trade barriers affect the trade balance and how to identify changes in trade barriers. We also show the effect of temporary trade policies on the trade balance depends on whether they induce a trade war. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; International Economics ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25563 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583237 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | George A. Alessandria,Horag Choi. The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate: The J Curve and Trade Costs?. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25563.pdf（1299KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
