| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25606 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25606 |
| Might Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade? | |
| Isaac Baley; Laura Veldkamp; Michael E. Waugh | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-03-04 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Common wisdom dictates that uncertainty impedes trade—we show that uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions. In equilibrium, increases in uncertainty increase both the mean and the variance in returns to exporting implying that trade can increase or decrease with uncertainty depending on preferences. Under general conditions on preferences, we characterize the importance of these forces using a sufficient statistics approach. Higher uncertainty leads to increases in trade because agents receive improved terms of trade, particularly in states of nature where consumption is most valuable. Trade creates value, in part, by offering a mechanism to share risk and risk sharing is most effective when both parties are uninformed. |
| 主题 | Other ; General, Teaching ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; International Economics ; Trade ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25606 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583280 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Isaac Baley,Laura Veldkamp,Michael E. Waugh. Might Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade?. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25606.pdf（638KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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