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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w25670
来源IDWorking Paper 25670
A Model of a Randomized Experiment with an Application to the PROWESS Clinical Trial
Amanda E. Kowalski
发表日期2019-03-18
出版年2019
语种英语
摘要I develop a model of a randomized experiment with a binary intervention and a binary outcome. Potential outcomes in the intervention and control groups give rise to four types of participants. Fixing ideas such that the outcome is mortality, some participants would live regardless, others would be saved, others would be killed, and others would die regardless. These potential outcome types are not observable. However, I use the model to develop estimators of the number of participants of each type. The model relies on the randomization within the experiment and on deductive reasoning. I apply the model to an important clinical trial, the PROWESS trial, and I perform a Monte Carlo simulation calibrated to estimates from the trial. The reduced form from the trial shows a reduction in mortality, which provided a rationale for FDA approval. However, I find that the intervention killed two participants for every three it saved. [This paper has been combined with “Counting Defiers” (www.nber.org/ papers/w25671) and superseded by “Counting Defiers: Examples from Health Care” (https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.06739) as of July 17, 2020.]
主题Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Public Economics ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w25670
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583343
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Amanda E. Kowalski. A Model of a Randomized Experiment with an Application to the PROWESS Clinical Trial. 2019.
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