Gateway to Think Tanks
来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | 10.3386/w25702 |
来源ID | Working Paper 25702 |
Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market | |
Itzhak Ben-David; Pascal Towbin; Sebastian Weber | |
发表日期 | 2019-04-01 |
出版年 | 2019 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | We propose a new method to identify shifts in price expectations in the housing market through the accumulation of excess capacity. Expectations of future price increases (due to anticipated future demand for housing services) cause the current supply to increase, creating a temporary vacancy. We implement this intuition in a structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions and explore the effects of price expectations in the U.S. housing market. We find that price expectation shocks were a prime factor explaining the 1996–2006 boom, particularly in the Sand States. Expectation shocks at the boom’s peak reflected implausible growth expectations and reversed during the bust. |
主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Real Estate |
URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25702 |
来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583376 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Itzhak Ben-David,Pascal Towbin,Sebastian Weber. Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market. 2019. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
w25702.pdf(873KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。