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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w25702
来源IDWorking Paper 25702
Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market
Itzhak Ben-David; Pascal Towbin; Sebastian Weber
发表日期2019-04-01
出版年2019
语种英语
摘要We propose a new method to identify shifts in price expectations in the housing market through the accumulation of excess capacity. Expectations of future price increases (due to anticipated future demand for housing services) cause the current supply to increase, creating a temporary vacancy. We implement this intuition in a structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions and explore the effects of price expectations in the U.S. housing market. We find that price expectation shocks were a prime factor explaining the 1996–2006 boom, particularly in the Sand States. Expectation shocks at the boom’s peak reflected implausible growth expectations and reversed during the bust.
主题Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Real Estate
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w25702
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583376
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GB/T 7714
Itzhak Ben-David,Pascal Towbin,Sebastian Weber. Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market. 2019.
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