| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25811 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25811 |
| The Fiscal Roots of Inflation | |
| John H. Cochrane | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-05-06 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Unexpected inflation devalues nominal government bonds. It must therefore correspond to a decline in expected future surpluses, or a rise in their discount rates, so that the real value of debt equals the present value of surpluses. I measure each component using a vector autoregression, via responses to inflation, recession, surplus and discount rate shocks. Discount rates account for much inflation variation, for the cyclical pattern of inflation, and why persistent deficits often do not cause inflation. Long-term debt is important. In response to a fiscal shock, smooth inflation slowly devalues outstanding long-termbonds. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25811 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583484 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | John H. Cochrane. The Fiscal Roots of Inflation. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25811.pdf（558KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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