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来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | 10.3386/w25863 |
来源ID | Working Paper 25863 |
The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades | |
John J. Donohue; Steven D. Levitt | |
发表日期 | 2019-05-20 |
出版年 | 2019 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Donohue and Levitt (2001) presented evidence that the legalization of abortion in the early 1970s played an important role in the crime drop of the 1990s. That paper concluded with a strong out-of-sample prediction regarding the next two decades: “When a steady state is reached roughly twenty years from now, the impact of abortion will be roughly twice as great as the impact felt so far. Our results suggest that all else equal, legalized abortion will account for persistent declines of 1 percent a year in crime over the next two decades.” Estimating parallel specifications to the original paper, but using the seventeen years of data generated after that paper was written, we find strong support for the prediction. The estimated coefficient on legalized abortion is actually larger in the latter period than it was in the initial dataset in almost all specifications. We estimate that crime fell roughly 20% between 1997 and 2014 due to legalized abortion. The cumulative impact of legalized abortion on crime is roughly 45%, accounting for a very substantial portion of the roughly 50-55% overall decline from the peak of crime in the early 1990s. |
主题 | Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Other ; Law and Economics |
URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25863 |
来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583536 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | John J. Donohue,Steven D. Levitt. The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades. 2019. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
w25863.pdf(432KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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