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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w25867
来源IDWorking Paper 25867
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends
Andrew Foerster; Andreas Hornstein; Pierre-Daniel Sarte; Mark W. Watson
发表日期2019-05-27
出版年2019
语种英语
摘要We find disparate trend variation in TFP and labor growth across major U.S. production sectors over the post-WWII period. When aggregated, these sector-specific trends imply secular declines in the growth rate of aggregate labor and TFP. We embed this sectoral trend variation into a dynamic multi-sector framework in which materials and capital used in each sector are produced by other sectors. The presence of capital induces important network effects from production linkages that amplify the consequences of changing sectoral trends on GDP growth. Thus, in some sectors, changes in TFP and labor growth lead to changes in GDP growth that may be as large as three times these sectors' share in the economy. We find that trend GDP growth has declined by more than 2 percentage points since 1950, and that this decline has been primarily shaped by sector-specific rather than aggregate factors. Sustained contractions in growth specific to Construction, Nondurable Goods, and Professional and Business and Services make up close to sixty percent of the estimated trend decrease in GDP growth. In addition, the slow process of capital accumulation means that structural changes have endogenously persistent effects. We estimate that trend GDP growth will continue to decline for the next 10 years absent persistent increases in TFP and labor growth.
主题Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w25867
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583540
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GB/T 7714
Andrew Foerster,Andreas Hornstein,Pierre-Daniel Sarte,et al. Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends. 2019.
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