| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25892 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25892 |
| Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve | |
| Michael McLeay; Silvana Tenreyro | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-06-03 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that inflation follows a seemingly exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the Phillips curve has weakened or disappeared. In this paper we explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or, in other words, why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve, a key building block of the policy framework used by central banks. We show why this result need not imply that the Phillips curve does not hold – on the contrary, our conceptual framework is built under the assumption that the Phillips curve always holds. The reason is simple: if monetary policy is set with the goal of minimising welfare losses (measured as the sum of deviations of inflation from its target and output from its potential), subject to a Phillips curve, a central bank will seek to increase inflation when output is below potential. This targeting rule will impart a negative correlation between inflation and the output gap, blurring the identification of the (positively sloped) Phillips curve. We discuss different strategies to circumvent the identification problem and present evidence of a robust Phillips curve in US data. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25892 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583566 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael McLeay,Silvana Tenreyro. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25892.pdf（1192KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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