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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w25925
来源IDWorking Paper 25925
The Political Economy Consequences of China's Export Slowdown
Filipe R. Campante; Davin Chor; Bingjing Li
发表日期2019-06-10
出版年2019
语种英语
摘要We study how adverse economic shocks influence political outcomes in authoritarian regimes in strong states, by examining the 2013-2015 export slowdown in China. We exploit detailed customs data and the variation they reveal about Chinese prefectures’ underlying exposure to the global trade slowdown, in order to implement a shift-share instrumental variables strategy. Prefectures that experienced a more severe export slowdown witnessed a significant increase in incidents of labor strikes. This was accompanied by a heightened emphasis in such prefectures on upholding domestic stability, as evidenced from: (i) textual analysis measures we constructed from official annual work reports using machine-learning algorithms; and (ii) data we gathered on local fiscal expenditures channelled towards public security uses and social spending. The central government was subsequently more likely to replace the party secretary in prefectures that saw a high level of “excess strikes”, above what could be predicted from the observed export slowdown, suggesting that local leaders were held to account on yardsticks related to political stability.
主题Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; International Economics ; Trade ; Public Economics ; Labor Economics ; Labor Relations ; Other ; Economic Systems
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w25925
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583599
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GB/T 7714
Filipe R. Campante,Davin Chor,Bingjing Li. The Political Economy Consequences of China's Export Slowdown. 2019.
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