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来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | 10.3386/w25925 |
来源ID | Working Paper 25925 |
The Political Economy Consequences of China's Export Slowdown | |
Filipe R. Campante; Davin Chor; Bingjing Li | |
发表日期 | 2019-06-10 |
出版年 | 2019 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | We study how adverse economic shocks influence political outcomes in authoritarian regimes in strong states, by examining the 2013-2015 export slowdown in China. We exploit detailed customs data and the variation they reveal about Chinese prefectures’ underlying exposure to the global trade slowdown, in order to implement a shift-share instrumental variables strategy. Prefectures that experienced a more severe export slowdown witnessed a significant increase in incidents of labor strikes. This was accompanied by a heightened emphasis in such prefectures on upholding domestic stability, as evidenced from: (i) textual analysis measures we constructed from official annual work reports using machine-learning algorithms; and (ii) data we gathered on local fiscal expenditures channelled towards public security uses and social spending. The central government was subsequently more likely to replace the party secretary in prefectures that saw a high level of “excess strikes”, above what could be predicted from the observed export slowdown, suggesting that local leaders were held to account on yardsticks related to political stability. |
主题 | Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; International Economics ; Trade ; Public Economics ; Labor Economics ; Labor Relations ; Other ; Economic Systems |
URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25925 |
来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583599 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Filipe R. Campante,Davin Chor,Bingjing Li. The Political Economy Consequences of China's Export Slowdown. 2019. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
w25925.pdf(987KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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