| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25956 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25956 |
| Surveying Business Uncertainty | |
| David Altig; Jose Maria Barrero; Nicholas Bloom; Steven J. Davis; Brent H. Meyer; Nicholas Parker | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-06-17 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We elicit subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own-firm outcomes at a one-year look-ahead horizon. In terms of question design, our key innovation is to let survey respondents freely select support points and probabilities in five-point distributions over future sales growth, employment, and investment. In terms of data collection, we develop and field a new monthly panel Survey of Business Uncertainty. The SBU began in 2014 and now covers about 1,750 firms drawn from all 50 states, every major nonfarm industry, and a range of firm sizes. We find three key results. First, firm-level growth expectations are highly predictive of realized growth rates. Second, subjective uncertainty is highly predictive of forecast errors and the magnitude of future forecast revisions. Third, subjective uncertainty rises with the firm’s absolute growth rate in the previous year and the extent of recent news about its growth prospects. We aggregate over firm-level forecast distributions to construct monthly indices of business expectations (first moment) and uncertainty (second moment) for the U.S. private sector. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25956 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583630 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David Altig,Jose Maria Barrero,Nicholas Bloom,et al. Surveying Business Uncertainty. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25956.pdf（2928KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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