| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25965 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25965 |
| Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China\u2019s Pre-WTO Accession | |
| George A. Alessandria; Shafaat Y. Khan; Armen Khederlarian | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-06-17 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the effects on international trade from the annual tariff uncertainty about China's MFN status renewal in the U.S. prior to joining the WTO. We have four main findings. First, in the monthly data trade increases significantly in anticipation of uncertain future increases in tariffs and falls upon renewal. Second, the probability of a tariff increase was perceived to be relatively small, with an average annual probability of non-renewal of about 3.2 percent. Third, what matters more is the expected future tariff rather than the uncertainty around it. We identify these effects using within-year variation in the risk of trade policy changes around the renewal vote and trade flows. We show that an (s; s) inventory model generates this behavior and that variation in the strength of the stockpiling in advance of the vote is increasing in the storability of goods. Fourth, the costs associated with the trade policy induced stockpiling reduce entrants' incentive to operate in a market with tariff uncertainty. Our results explain why trade may hold up in advance of a prospective policy change, such as Brexit or the U.S.-China escalating tariff war of 2018-19, but may fall sharply even if expected tariff increases do not materialize. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; Trade |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25965 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583639 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | George A. Alessandria,Shafaat Y. Khan,Armen Khederlarian. Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China\u2019s Pre-WTO Accession. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25965.pdf（1044KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
