| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w25987
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 25987
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| Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation |
| James H. Stock; Mark W. Watson
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| 发表日期 | 2019-06-24
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| 出版年 | 2019
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | We investigate the flattening Phillips relation by making two departures from standard specifications. First, we measure slack using real activity variables that are bandpass filtered or year-over-year changes in activity (these are similar), instead of gaps. Second, we study the components of inflation instead of the standard aggregates. We find that some inflation components have strong and stable correlations with the cyclical component of real activity; these components tend to be relatively well-measured and domestically determined. Other components, typically prices that are poorly measured or internationally determined, have weak and/or unstable correlations with cyclical activity. We construct a new inflation index, Cyclically Sensitive Inflation, that weights the components by their joint cyclical covariation with real activity. The index has strong and stable correlations with cyclical activity and provides a real-time measure of cyclical movements in inflation. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; Business Cycles
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25987
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583661
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
James H. Stock,Mark W. Watson. Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation. 2019.
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文件名：
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w25987.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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