全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Forward Guidance: Is It Useful Away from the Lower Bound?

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w26053
来源ID	Working Paper 26053
	Forward Guidance: Is It Useful Away from the Lower Bound?
	Lilia Maliar; John B. Taylor
发表日期	2019-07-15
出版年	2019
语种	英语
摘要	During the recent economic crisis, when nominal interest rates were at their effective lower bounds, central banks used forward guidance announcements about future policy rates to conduct their monetary policy. Many policymakers believe that forward guidance will remain in use after the end of the crisis; however, there is uncertainty about its effectiveness. In this paper, we study the impact of forward guidance in a stylized new Keynesian economy away from the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using closed-form solutions, we show that the impact of forward guidance on the economy depends critically on a specific monetary policy rule, ranging from non-existing to immediate and unrealistically large, the so-called forward guidance puzzle. We show that the size of the smallest root (or eigenvalue) captures model dynamics better than the underlying parameters. We argue that the puzzle occurs under very special empirically implausible and socially sub-optimal monetary policy rules, whereas empirically relevant Taylor rules lead to sensible implications.
主题	Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w26053
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583727
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lilia Maliar,John B. Taylor. Forward Guidance: Is It Useful Away from the Lower Bound?. 2019.

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文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w26053.pdf（434KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览