| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26056 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26056 |
| A Classical View of the Business Cycle | |
| Michael T. Belongia; Peter N. Ireland | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-07-15 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In the 1920s, Irving Fisher extended his previous work on the Quantity Theory to describe, through an early version of the Phillips Curve, how changes in the money stock could be associated with cyclical movements in output, employment, and inflation. At the same time, Holbrook Working designed a quantitative rule for achieving price stability through control of the money supply. This paper develops a structural vector autoregressive time series model that allows these "classical" channels of monetary transmission to operate alongside the now-more-familiar interest rate channel of the New Keynesian model. Even with Bayesian priors that intentionally favor the New Keynesian view, the United States data produce posterior distributions for the model's key parameters that are consistent with the ideas of Fisher and Working. Changes in real money balances enter importantly into the model's aggregate demand relationship, while growth in Divisia M2 appears in the estimated monetary policy rule. Contractionary monetary policy shocks reveal themselves through persistent declines in nominal money growth instead of rising nominal interest rates and account for important historical movements in output and inflation. |
| 主题 | Other ; History of Economic Thought ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26056 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583730 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael T. Belongia,Peter N. Ireland. A Classical View of the Business Cycle. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26056.pdf（2366KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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