| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26071 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26071 |
| Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations | |
| Christopher L. House; Christian Proebsting; Linda L. Tesar | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-07-15 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We exploit differences across U.S. states in terms of their exposure to trade to study the effects of changes in the exchange rate on economic activity at the business cycle frequency. We find that a depreciation in the state-specific trade-weighted real exchange rate is associated with an increase in exports, a decline in unemployment and an increase in hours worked. The effect is particularly strong in periods of economic slack. We develop a multi-region model with inter-state trade and labor flows and calibrate it to match the state-level orientation of exports and the extent of labor migration and trade between states. The model replicates the relationship between exchange rates and unemployment. Counterfactuals show that the high degree of interstate trade plays a dominant role in transmitting shocks across states in the first year, whereas interstate migration shapes cross-sectional patterns in following years. The model suggests that a 25% Chinese import tariff on U.S. goods would be felt throughout the United States, even in states with small direct linkages to China, raising unemployment rates by 0.2 to 0.7 percentage points in the short run. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Factor Mobility ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26071 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583745 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christopher L. House,Christian Proebsting,Linda L. Tesar. Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26071.pdf（2069KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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