| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26080 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26080 |
| Testing the Validity of the Single Interrupted Time Series Design | |
| Katherine Baicker; Theodore Svoronos | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-07-22 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Given the complex relationships between patients’ demographics, underlying health needs, and outcomes, establishing the causal effects of health policy and delivery interventions on health outcomes is often empirically challenging. The single interrupted time series (SITS) design has become a popular evaluation method in contexts where a randomized controlled trial is not feasible. In this paper, we formalize the structure and assumptions underlying the single ITS design and show that it is significantly more vulnerable to confounding than is often acknowledged and, as a result, can produce misleading results. We illustrate this empirically using the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, showing that an evaluation using a single interrupted time series design instead of the randomized controlled trial would have produced large and statistically significant results of the wrong sign. We discuss the pitfalls of the SITS design, and suggest circumstances in which it is and is not likely to be reliable. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26080 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583754 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Katherine Baicker,Theodore Svoronos. Testing the Validity of the Single Interrupted Time Series Design. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26080.pdf（363KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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