| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26109 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26109 |
| Using Models to Persuade | |
| Joshua Schwartzstein; Adi Sunderam | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-07-29 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We present a framework for analyzing “model persuasion.” Persuaders influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models (likelihood functions) that specify how to organize past data (e.g., on investment performance) to make predictions (e.g., about future returns). Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs over states of the world. Model persuaders face a key tradeoff: models that better fit the data given receivers’ prior beliefs induce less movement in receivers’ beliefs. This tradeoff means that a receiver exposed to the true model can be most misled by persuasion when that model fits poorly—for instance when there is a lot of data that exhibits randomness. In such cases, a wrong model often wins because it provides a better fit. Similarly, competition between persuaders tends to neutralize the data because it pushes towards models that provide overly good fits and therefore do not move receivers’ beliefs much. The fit-movement tradeoff depends on receiver characteristics, so with multiple receivers a persuader is more effective when he can send tailored, private messages. We illustrate with examples from finance, business, politics, and law. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Behavioral Finance ; Industrial Organization ; Market Structure and Firm Performance ; Other ; Accounting, Marketing, and Personnel |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26109 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583782 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joshua Schwartzstein,Adi Sunderam. Using Models to Persuade. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26109.pdf（1150KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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