| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26125 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26125 |
| Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response on Late-onset Dementia | |
| Pamela Giustinelli; Charles F. Manski; Francesca Molinari | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-07-29 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We elicit numerical expectations for late-onset dementia in the Health and Retirement Study. Our elicitation distinguishes between precise and imprecise probabilities, while accounting for rounding of reports. Respondents quantify imprecision using probability intervals. Nearly half of respondents hold imprecise dementia probabilities, while almost a third of precise-probability respondents round their reports. We provide the first empirical evidence on dementia-risk perceptions among dementia-free older Americans and novel evidence about imprecise probabilities in a nationally-representative sample. We show, in a specific framework, that failing to account for imprecise or rounded probabilities can yield incorrect predictions of long-term care insurance purchase decisions. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Health, Education, and Welfare |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26125 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583797 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pamela Giustinelli,Charles F. Manski,Francesca Molinari. Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response on Late-onset Dementia. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26125.pdf（535KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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