| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26184 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26184 |
| The Natural Level of Capital Flows | |
| John D. Burger; Francis E. Warnock; Veronica Cacdac Warnock | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-08-26 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We put forward a theory-based time-varying supply-side measure of the natural level of capital flows, KF*. Out-of-sample empirical features of KF* are impressive. For countries that have quarterly time series data of capital flows, we show that KF* is a level to which flows converge in the medium term; greatly improves our ability to model notoriously volatile capital flows; and performs well against out-of-sample and in-sample filtering techniques. The gap between actual inflows and KF* also helps predict both 6-quarters ahead sudden stop episodes and medium-term equity returns. We close with how KF* and lessons from the global financial crisis help us think about capital flows during the Covid-19 shock. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26184 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583856 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | John D. Burger,Francis E. Warnock,Veronica Cacdac Warnock. The Natural Level of Capital Flows. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26184.pdf（5683KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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