| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26199 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26199 |
| Fooled by the Cycle: Permanent versus Cyclical Improvements in Social Indicators | |
| José Andrée Camarena; Luciana Galeano; Luis Morano; Jorge Puig; Daniel Riera-Crichton; Carlos Vegh; Lucila Venturi; Guillermo Vuletin | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-09-02 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper studies the time-series behavior of a set of widely-used social indicators and uncovers two important stylized facts. First, not all social indicators are created equal in terms of the importance of cyclical fluctuations. While some social indicators such as the unemployment rate and monetary poverty show large cyclical fluctuations, other social measures such as the Human Development Index are, by construction, dominated by long-run trends. Second, a large fraction of the cyclical fluctuations in social indicators can be explained by the cyclical changes in income (proxied by real GDP per capita). Since cyclical income volatility is much larger in the developing world, these two critical facts raise fundamental issues regarding how permanent are improvements in social indicators (like the ones observed in many developing countries during the last commodity super-cycle). Finally, and relying on a global sample of industrial and developing countries, we dig deeper into the importance of cyclical versus permanent components by extending the seminal contribution of Datt and Ravallion (1992). In particular, we show that more than 40 percent of the fall in monetary poverty observed in Latin America and the Caribbean during the so-called Golden Decade can be attributed to cyclical changes in income. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Poverty and Wellbeing ; Development and Growth ; Country Studies |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26199 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583870 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | José Andrée Camarena,Luciana Galeano,Luis Morano,et al. Fooled by the Cycle: Permanent versus Cyclical Improvements in Social Indicators. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26199.pdf（1054KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
