| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26247 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26247 |
| Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016 | |
| Michael Geruso; Dean Spears; Ishaana Talesara | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-09-09 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Inversions—in which the popular vote winner loses the election—have occurred in four US presidential races. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the early 1800s. In elections yielding a popular vote margin within one point (one-eighth of presidential elections), about 40% will be inversions in expectation. We show this conditional probability is remarkably stable across historical periods—despite differences in which groups voted, which states existed, and which parties participated. Our findings imply that the US has experienced so few inversions merely because there have been so few elections (and fewer close elections). |
| 主题 | Public Economics ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Other ; Law and Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26247 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583919 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael Geruso,Dean Spears,Ishaana Talesara. Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26247.pdf（10132KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
