| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26351 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26351 |
| A Plucking Model of Business Cycles | |
| Stéphane Dupraz; Emi Nakamura; Jón Steinsson | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-10-07 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In standard models, economic activity fluctuates symmetrically around a “natural rate” and stabilization policies can dampen these fluctuations but do not affect the average level of activity. An alternative view—labeled the “plucking model” by Milton Friedman—is that economic fluctuations are drops below the economy’s full potential ceiling. We show that the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the US display a striking asymmetry that strongly favors the plucking model: increases in unemployment are followed by decreases of similar amplitude, while the amplitude of the increase is not related to the amplitude of the previous decrease. We develop a microfounded plucking model of the business cycle. In our model, the plucking asymmetry results from downward nominal wage rigidity, which we rationalize using a search model. Our model also matches the fact that unemployment rises much faster during recessions than it falls during expansions. In our plucking model, stabilization policy lowers average unemployment and thereby yields sizable welfare gains. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26351 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584022 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stéphane Dupraz,Emi Nakamura,Jón Steinsson. A Plucking Model of Business Cycles. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26351.pdf（1251KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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