| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26353 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26353 |
| The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks: Evidence from the US-China Trade War | |
| Michael E. Waugh | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-10-07 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper provides evidence on the consumption effects of trade shocks by exploiting changes in US and Chinese trade policy between 2017 and 2018. The analysis uses a unique data set with the universe of new auto sales at the US county level, at a monthly frequency, and a simple difference-in-difference approach to measure the effect of changes in trade policy on county-level consumption. I estimate the elasticity of consumption growth to Chinese retaliatory tariffs to be around minus one. This implies that counties in the upper quartile of the retaliatory-tariff distribution experienced a 3.8 percentage point decline in consumption growth. The fall in consumption corresponds with decline in both tradeable and retail employment. These results suggest that Chinese retaliation is leading to concentrated welfare losses in the US. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; Trade ; International Macroeconomics ; Globalization and International Relations |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26353 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584024 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael E. Waugh. The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks: Evidence from the US-China Trade War. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26353.pdf（876KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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