| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26434 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26434 |
| Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election? | |
| Emily J. Blanchard; Chad P. Bown; Davin Chor | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-11-11 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We uncover evidence that the US-China trade war was consequential for voting outcomes in the 2018 congressional midterm election. Republican House candidates lost support in counties more exposed to tariff retaliation, but saw no appreciable gains in counties that received more direct US tariff protection. The electoral losses were only modestly mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans also fared worse in counties that had seen recent gains in health insurance coverage (where efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act may have been more consequential), and where a new federal cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions disadvantaged more taxpayers. Counterfactual calculations suggest that Republicans would have lost ten fewer House seats absent the trade war, in a similar range to either health care or SALT policies in the number of lost seats it can account for. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Trade |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26434 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584106 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Emily J. Blanchard,Chad P. Bown,Davin Chor. Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26434.pdf（12306KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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