| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26440 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26440 |
| Voting for Democracy: Chile's Plebiscito and the Electoral Participation of a Generation | |
| Ethan Kaplan; Fernando Saltiel; Sergio S. Urzúa | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-11-11 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper assesses if voting for democracy affects long-term electoral participation. We study the effects of participating in Chile's 1988 plebiscite, which determined whether democracy would be reinstated after a 15-year long military dictatorship. Taking advantage of individual-level voting data for upwards of 13 million Chileans, we implement an age-based RD design comparing long run registration and turnout rates across marginally eligible and ineligible individuals. We find that Plebiscite eligibility (participation) significantly increased electoral turnout three decades later, reaching 1.8 (3.3) percentage points in the 2017 Presidential election. These effects are robust to different specifications and distinctive to the 1988 referendum. We discuss potential mechanisms concluding that the scale of initial mobilization explains the estimated effects. We find that plebiscite eligibility induced a sizable share of less educated voters to register to vote compared to eligibles in other upstream elections. Since less educated voters tended to support Chile's governing left-wing coalition, we argue that the plebiscite contributed to the emergence of one party rule the twenty years following democratization. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; History ; Other History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26440 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584112 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ethan Kaplan,Fernando Saltiel,Sergio S. Urzúa. Voting for Democracy: Chile's Plebiscito and the Electoral Participation of a Generation. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26440.pdf（1423KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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