| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26522 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26522 |
| Estimating Biases in Smoking Cessation: Evidence from a Field Experiment | |
| Frank J. Chaloupka IV; Matthew R. Levy; Justin S. White | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-12-09 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We conduct a randomized field experiment to quantify biases that affect consumers of addictive goods: present-biased preferences, naïve beliefs regarding present bias, and projection-biased beliefs over future abstinence. These biases reflect departures from the neoclassical benchmark needed to accommodate intertemporal and state-dependent prediction errors and have important theoretical and policy ramifications. Our experiment employs a new approach for remote monitoring to ensure truthful reporting of behavior and valuations, and a novel identification of subjects’ biases based on willingness to pay for future abstinence incentives that serve as partial commitment devices. We find that cigarette smokers overestimate their likelihood of future abstinence by more than 100%, consistent with partially-naïve present-biased preferences. We estimate that on average smokers are present biased and only partially aware of their present bias, with substantial heterogeneity and a positive correlation between the two at the individual level. Smokers mispredict the effects of an abstinence intervention. Ex ante smokers anticipate no effect of the intervention on their future abstinence and ex post fail to recognize the intervention’s positive effect. Our estimates highlight that smokers suffer from a constellation of biases: under their own long-run preferences, smokers’ choices lead to a private welfare loss of $400 per week. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Experimental Design ; Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26522 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584196 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Frank J. Chaloupka IV,Matthew R. Levy,Justin S. White. Estimating Biases in Smoking Cessation: Evidence from a Field Experiment. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26522.pdf（1200KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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