| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26565 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26565 |
| Skewed Business Cycles | |
| Sergio Salgado; Fatih Guvenen; Nicholas Bloom | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-12-23 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Using firm-level panel data from the US Census Bureau and almost fifty other countries, we show that the skewness of the growth rates of employment, sales, and productivity is procyclical. In particular, during recessions, they display a large left tail of negative growth rates (and during booms, a large right tail of positive growth rates). We find similar results at the industry level: industries with falling growth rates see more left-skewed growth rates of firm sales, employment, and productivity. We then build a heterogeneous-agent model in which entrepreneurs face shocks with time-varying skewness that matches the firm-level distributions we document for the United States. Our quantitative results show that a negative shock to the skewness of firms’ productivity growth (keeping the mean and variance constant) generates a persistent drop in output, investment, hiring, and consumption. This suggests the rising risk of large negative firm-level shocks could be an important factor driving recessions. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26565 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584239 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sergio Salgado,Fatih Guvenen,Nicholas Bloom. Skewed Business Cycles. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26565.pdf（1187KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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