| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26593 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26593 |
| An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics | |
| Ulrich K. Müller; James H. Stock; Mark W. Watson | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-12-30 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a Bayesian latent factor model of the joint evolution of GDP per capita for 113 countries over the 118 years from 1900 to 2017. We find considerable heterogeneity in rates of convergence, including rates for some countries that are so slow that they might not converge (or diverge) in century-long samples, and evidence of “convergence clubs” of countries. The joint Bayesian structure allows us to compute a joint predictive distribution for the output paths of these countries over the next 100 years. This predictive distribution can be used for simulations requiring projections into the deep future, such as estimating the costs of climate change. The model’s pooling of information across countries results in tighter prediction intervals than are achieved using univariate information sets. Still, even using more than a century of data on many countries, the 100-year growth paths exhibit very wide uncertainty. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Development and Growth ; Growth and Productivity |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26593 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584267 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ulrich K. Müller,James H. Stock,Mark W. Watson. An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26593.pdf（4153KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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