| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26624 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26624 |
| Combining Matching and Synthetic Control to Trade o\ufb00 Biases from Extrapolation and Interpolation | |
| Maxwell Kellogg; Magne Mogstad; Guillaume Pouliot; Alexander Torgovitsky | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-01-06 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The synthetic control method is widely used in comparative case studies to adjust for differences in pre-treatment characteristics. A major attraction of the method is that it limits extrapolation bias that can occur when untreated units with different pre-treatment characteristics are combined using a traditional adjustment, such as a linear regression. Instead, the SC estimator is susceptible to interpolation bias because it uses a convex weighted average of the untreated units to create a synthetic untreated unit with pre-treatment characteristics similar to those of the treated unit. More traditional matching estimators exhibit the opposite behavior: they limit interpolation bias at the potential expense of extrapolation bias. We propose combining the matching and synthetic control estimators through model averaging to create an estimator called MASC. We show how to use a rolling-origin cross-validation procedure to train the MASC to resolve trade-offs between interpolation and extrapolation bias. We use a series of empirically-based placebo and Monte Carlo simulations to shed light on when the SC, matching, MASC and penalized SC estimators do (and do not) perform well. Then, we use the MASC re-examine the economic costs of conflicts and find evidence of larger effects than with SC. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Public Economics ; Labor Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26624 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584297 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Maxwell Kellogg,Magne Mogstad,Guillaume Pouliot,et al. Combining Matching and Synthetic Control to Trade o\ufb00 Biases from Extrapolation and Interpolation. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26624.pdf（653KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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