| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26648 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26648 |
| The Structure of Economic News | |
| Leland Bybee; Bryan T. Kelly; Asaf Manela; Dacheng Xiu | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-01-20 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose an approach to measuring the state of the economy via textual analysis of business news. From the full text content of 800,000 Wall Street Journal articles for 1984{2017, we estimate a topic model that summarizes business news as easily interpretable topical themes and quantifies the proportion of news attention allocated to each theme at each point in time. We then use our news attention estimates as inputs into statistical models of numerical economic time series. We demonstrate that these text-based inputs accurately track a wide range of economic activity measures and that they have incremental forecasting power for macroeconomic outcomes, above and beyond standard numerical predictors. Finally, we use our model to retrieve the news-based narratives that underly “shocks” in numerical economic data. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Data Collection ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Business Cycles ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26648 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584330 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Leland Bybee,Bryan T. Kelly,Asaf Manela,et al. The Structure of Economic News. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26648.pdf（4246KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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