| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26686 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26686 |
| The Aggregate Consequences of Default Risk: Evidence from Firm-level Data | |
| Timothy J. Besley; Isabelle A. Roland; John Van Reenen | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-02-03 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper studies the implications of perceived default risk for aggregate output and productivity. Using a model of credit contracts with moral hazard, we show that a firm’s probability of default is a sufficient statistic for capital allocation. The theoretical framework suggests an aggregate measure of the impact of credit market frictions based on firm-level probabilities of default which can be applied using data on firm-level employment and default risk. We obtain direct estimates of firm-level default probabilities using Standard and Poor’s PD Model to capture the expectations that lenders were forming based on their historical information sets. We implement the method on the UK, an economy that was strongly exposed to the global financial crisis and where we can match default probabilities to administrative data on the population of 1.5 million firms per year. As expected, we find a strong correlation between default risk and a firm’s future performance. We estimate that credit frictions (i) cause an output loss of around 28% per year on average; (ii) are much larger for firms with under 250 employees and (iii) that losses are overwhelmingly due to a lower overall capital stock rather than a misallocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous productivity. Further, we find that these losses accounted for over half of the productivity fall between 2008 and 2009, and persisted for smaller (although not larger) firms |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Industrial Organization ; Market Structure and Firm Performance ; Development and Growth ; Growth and Productivity |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26686 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584380 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Timothy J. Besley,Isabelle A. Roland,John Van Reenen. The Aggregate Consequences of Default Risk: Evidence from Firm-level Data. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26686.pdf（1145KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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