| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26716 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26716 |
| Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy | |
| Stefano DellaVigna; Nicholas Otis; Eva Vivalt | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-02-03 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Forecasts of experimental results can clarify the interpretation of research results, mitigate publication bias, and improve experimental designs. We collect forecasts of the results of three Registered Reports preliminarily accepted to the Journal of Development Economics, randomly varying four features: (1) small versus large reference values; (2) whether predictions are in raw units or standard deviations; (3) text-entry versus slider responses; and (4) small versus large slider bounds. Forecasts are generally robust to elicitation features, though wider slider bounds are associated with higher forecasts throughout the forecast distribution. We make preliminary recommendations on how many forecasts should be gathered. |
| 主题 | Development and Growth ; Development |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26716 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584390 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stefano DellaVigna,Nicholas Otis,Eva Vivalt. Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26716.pdf（6257KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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