| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26778 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26778 |
| Forward Guidance and Household Expectations | |
| Olivier Coibion; Dimitris Georgarakos; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Michael Weber | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-02-24 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We compare the causal effects of forward guidance communication about future interest rates on households’ expectations of inflation, mortgage rates, and unemployment to the effects of communication about future inflation in a randomized controlled trial using more than 25,000 U.S. individuals in the Nielsen Homescan panel. We elicit individuals’ expectations and then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current and/or future inflation and interest rates. Information treatments about current and next year’s interest rates have a strong effect on household expectations but treatments beyond one year do not have any additional impact on forecasts. Exogenous variation in inflation expectations transmits into other expectations. The richness of our survey allows us to better understand how individuals form expectations about macroeconomic variables jointly and the non-response to long-run forward guidance is consistent with models in which agents have constrained capacity to collect and process information. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Data Collection ; Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26778 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584452 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Olivier Coibion,Dimitris Georgarakos,Yuriy Gorodnichenko,et al. Forward Guidance and Household Expectations. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26778.pdf（934KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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