| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26830 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 26830 |
| A Quantitative Analysis of Distortions in Managerial Forecasts | |
| Yueran Ma; Tiziano Ropele; David Sraer; David Thesmar | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-03-09 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper quantifies the economic costs of distortions in managerial forecasts. We match a unique managerial survey run by the Bank of Italy with administrative data on firm balance sheets and income statements. The resulting dataset allows us to observe a long panel of managerial forecast errors for a sample of firms representative of the Italian economy. We show that managerial forecast errors are positively and significantly autocorrelated. This persistence in forecast error is consistent with managerial underreaction to new information. To quantify the economic significance of this forecasting bias, we estimate a dynamic equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and distorted expectations. The estimated model matches not only the persistence of forecast errors, but the empirical link between investment and managerial forecasts. Relative to a counterfactual with rational expectations, we find that managers exhibit large forecasting biases, which lead to significant distortions in firm-level investment. These distortions, however, imply limited loss in firm value. In general equilibrium, the estimated model leads to negligible aggregate efficiency losses from distorted forecasts. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Financial Economics ; Corporate Finance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26830 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584503 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yueran Ma,Tiziano Ropele,David Sraer,et al. A Quantitative Analysis of Distortions in Managerial Forecasts. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w26830.pdf（1293KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
